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Goldman Sachs: We estimate that if the price of Brent crude oil falls to the range of more than $50/barrel by the end of 2025, the growth rate of shale oil supply in the United States will fall below 100,000 barrels per day in 2025, which in turn will push the price of Brent crude oil up by $8 per barrel in 2025.Fang Yi, Chief Strategy Officer of Guotai Junan: The conditions of "transformation cattle" in China stock market are forming four themes, focusing on mergers and acquisitions and self-control. Fang Yi, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Strategy, said at the main forum of Guotai Junan 2025 investment strategy that the bottom of China stock market has appeared, and the conditions of "transformation cattle" are forming; The key driving force of the market comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference, and the economic expectation is expected to be revised up in 2025H2; The mid-line of the stock market is expected to get out of the N-rhythm. Theme recommendation: merger and reorganization/self-control/humanoid robot/self-consumption. 1) M&A and reorganization: the regulatory tolerance of cross-border M&A and acquisition of unprofitable assets has been improved, and we are optimistic about the traditional industry leaders who are the main enterprises of science and technology chain and benefit from the optimization of industry structure; 2) Self-control: global science and technology supply chain reconstruction, optimistic about the improvement of localization rate of advanced semiconductors/basic software; 3) Humanoid robot: mass production and application scenario expansion are accelerated, and key components such as dexterous hands/actuators are optimistic; 4) Self-satisfaction consumption: demographic changes have given birth to new consumption patterns, and we are optimistic about the high growth of secondary consumption/pet consumption.US National Security Adviser Sullivan: I believe that the Gaza agreement may be reached soon. US National Security Adviser Sullivan said on Thursday that he believes that an agreement on a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza may be reached soon, because Israel has indicated that it is ready and Hamas has shown signs of action.

Peru's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5%.Fang Yi, Chief Strategy Officer of Guotai Junan: The conditions of "transformation cattle" in China stock market are forming four themes, focusing on mergers and acquisitions and self-control. Fang Yi, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Strategy, said at the main forum of Guotai Junan 2025 investment strategy that the bottom of China stock market has appeared, and the conditions of "transformation cattle" are forming; The key driving force of the market comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference, and the economic expectation is expected to be revised up in 2025H2; The mid-line of the stock market is expected to get out of the N-rhythm. Theme recommendation: merger and reorganization/self-control/humanoid robot/self-consumption. 1) M&A and reorganization: the regulatory tolerance of cross-border M&A and acquisition of unprofitable assets has been improved, and we are optimistic about the traditional industry leaders who are the main enterprises of science and technology chain and benefit from the optimization of industry structure; 2) Self-control: global science and technology supply chain reconstruction, optimistic about the improvement of localization rate of advanced semiconductors/basic software; 3) Humanoid robot: mass production and application scenario expansion are accelerated, and key components such as dexterous hands/actuators are optimistic; 4) Self-satisfaction consumption: demographic changes have given birth to new consumption patterns, and we are optimistic about the high growth of secondary consumption/pet consumption.Trump: The money saved by automation is far less than the pain, injury and loss it has caused to American workers.

Economic Daily: Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment and adjusting macro policies are related to the overall situation of national economic operation. The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on December 9th emphasized that a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented, the policy toolbox should be enriched and improved, the unconventional countercyclical adjustment should be strengthened, and the policy "combination boxing" should be well played to improve the foresight, pertinence and effectiveness of macro-control. The formulation of "extraordinary countercyclical adjustment" has aroused widespread concern in the market. The experts interviewed generally believe that the meeting of the Politburo is the general policy of economic work in the future. A series of statements at the meeting exceeded expectations, and larger fiscal and financial policies and industrial cultivation policies, and more extensive measures to promote people's livelihood and consumption are expected to be introduced, and various departments and localities will also let go of their hands and feet at the implementation level.Market News: New Zealand has put forward the reason to the United States that it hopes not to introduce new tariffs during Trump's administration.New york Federal Reserve: Michelle Neal, the marketing department, resigned and will officially leave on March 25th, 2025. Neal will be a senior consultant until she leaves the bank, and she will return to work in the private sector. Anna Nordstrom will be the temporary marketing director until Neal leaves.